Human Decision Making
Posted by Shane on April 26, 2009
As I struggle to finish my philosophy paper on freewill, my mind starts to wander off on its many tangents and leaves me to suffer the ill effects of my weeklong procrastination. Rather than focus on the task at hand so I can leave this despicable library that only brings forth misanthropic thoughts, my mind prefers to ponder on the nature of uncertainty and human decision-making.
I have come to the realization that there is nothing in this world that the human knowledge can ascertain to be absolutely certain, except for the truly trivial which is so trivial as to be irrelevant. Human nature and human intelligence is limited and not quite capable of achieving or coming to grasps with certainties and those among us that claim the ability of achieving certainty in their knowledge are nothing but modern day fraudsters (at best). All we are ever capable of is achieving a close enough probabilistic chance that allows us to just get-by in the stochastic world that we inhabit. None of the decisions we make are completed with any absolute certainty, but only with the knowledge that it is more likely than not that we are correct.
Forgive me if it sounds too philosophical (I am in that current state of mind), but do not throw the argument into the grave where other philosophical thoughts have been left. I say this because ever since I had this idea, I cannot help but see numerous examples where people, who should clearly see the stochastic process in their scenarios, instead disregard the uncertain (and the random) and pretend they possess 100% of the information and no other scenario is plausible.
We make predictions and forecasts that reject the unforeseen and the uncertain and we live by the predictions of these models. We make decisions believing them to be absolutely accurate only to shortly see errors in our decision, but in all these, we keep making the same heuristical errors in our judgments. We leave no room for uncertainty and act naïve in the presence of these unpredictable outcomes. We are not predisposed to believe that we are human, but maybe we need to start realizing our limitations before we can even start to attempt to surpass them (if at all possible).
Anyway, enough tangential thinking for me; it is back to the contemplation on the nature of freewill. Hooray (and yes, that was sarcasm).
markusschroer said
Well, these thoughts are not new, however, they keep troubling the philosophical mind, for it seems a problem we need to solve, although we cannot. One way to cope with it is to acknowledge that there is indeed no absolute certainty because this would require that one knows each relevant aspect to a topic, which must be impossible, since it amounts to knowing everything.
We might alternatively say that we are certain, even though we are not warranted in being (or feeling) so. The reason for this is that we need to feel certain if we are to be able to do anything. Otherwise, we might be paralyzed because we fear that something, whatever it may be, could go wrong whatever we are up to do.
As a last alternative, we can challenge the definition of ‘knowledge’. We pretend to be certain what ‘knowledge’ is, however, recall that no satisfactory definition has been given so far. I think it too demanding a definition that knowledge has to be infallible. Yet this is another story.
Daris said
I like your first point Markusschroer, very true. Consistently paralyzing yourself with uncertainty gets you nowhere. Weighing all of your knowledge and making a decision is one thing, constantly wavering back and forth between making a decision and un-making it is a senseless folly. Though a lack of analysis is naive, persistent nitpicking and analyzing is detrimental.
I kind of see it like the stock market. Some people check their stock every day, maybe every few hours. They give themselves headaches and upset stomachs. They questions whether they should keep stock they were VERY confident about when they bought it or if they should sell it now that it’s gone down more than expected, at least for this particular minute of the day (heck, it could soar tomorrow or by closing). However, some of the most successful Wall Street men–obvious choice, Warren Buffet–recommend you step away and discard the magnifying glass. Look into a stock, weigh the knowledge you do have, and if it seems worthy, stick with it. Don’t waver with your decision at every dip (dips WILL happen, no matter how amazing a stock is), instead invest in the long term in something you believe in and you’ll see great returns. If not, you’ll just end up selling great stock that happened to have a bad day.
hah, I hope the connection to decision making isn’t lost with a layman’s attempt at using the economy as a metaphor
JP said
Hi, interesting post. I have been thinking about this issue, so thanks for writing. I will probably be coming back to your blog. Keep up the good work
Deep Thinker said
Like Daris says, you have to weigh the best possible information you have available and make a choice and accept the consequences.
I read an interesting article today on Growing Up Late http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/10/AR2009061003902.html It talks about the current generation is delaying adulthood and to be that is postponing choice or decision making. If you make no decisions then you have no consequences to deal with. Adulthood is accepting and dealing with the consequences of your actions. It seems like this is an acceptable strategy for dealing with paralyzing uncertainty…grow up! There will never be perfect information or lack of bias.
It would appear that the past would be fairly certain as it already happened but that is even plagued with biases and uncertainties because it does not ever capture the whole of what happened. This was beautifully captured in Clint Eastwood’s Iwo Jima films. We will never have all the information, but that doesn’t mean we can’t act and continue to progress, sometimes its ok to just know enough even if it is only a resounding probably.
Shane said
I should state that the intent of this post, albeit a bit unclear, is not to tell of my inability to act due to indecision (that is not the case), but rather my abhorrence of those who go out of their way pretending they have found new and ingenious ways to eliminate that uncertainty when all they have done is turn a blind eye to it.
This is prevalent in today’s society where the new buzzword is risk-management, aka, pushing liabilities unto offshore accounts. I get annoyed because the people I attempt to emulate could be so naive as to try to find a way to tame risk. Risk is just something we account we, we cannot go around trying to eliminate it.