The Maturation of Shane

Navigating life, finance, and business as seen through the eyes of Shane.

Archive for the ‘Random’ Category

Human Decision Making

Posted by Shane on April 26, 2009

As I struggle to finish my philosophy paper on freewill, my mind starts to wander off on its many tangents and leaves me to suffer the ill effects of my weeklong procrastination. Rather than focus on the task at hand so I can leave this despicable library that only brings forth misanthropic thoughts, my mind prefers to ponder on the nature of uncertainty and human decision-making.

I have come to the realization that there is nothing in this world that the human knowledge can ascertain to be absolutely certain, except for the truly trivial which is so trivial as to be irrelevant. Human nature and human intelligence is limited and not quite capable of achieving or coming to grasps with certainties and those among us that claim the ability of achieving certainty in their knowledge are nothing but modern day fraudsters (at best). All we are ever capable of is achieving a close enough probabilistic chance that allows us to just get-by in the stochastic world that we inhabit. None of the decisions we make are completed with any absolute certainty, but only with the knowledge that it is more likely than not that we are correct.

Forgive me if it sounds too philosophical (I am in that current state of mind), but do not throw the argument into the grave where other philosophical thoughts have been left. I say this because ever since I had this idea, I cannot help but see numerous examples where people, who should clearly see the stochastic process in their scenarios, instead disregard the uncertain (and the random) and pretend they possess 100% of the information and no other scenario is plausible.

We make predictions and forecasts that reject the unforeseen and the uncertain and we live by the predictions of these models. We make decisions believing them to be absolutely accurate only to shortly see errors in our decision, but in all these, we keep making the same heuristical errors in our judgments. We leave no room for uncertainty and act naïve in the presence of these unpredictable outcomes. We are not predisposed to believe that we are human, but maybe we need to start realizing our limitations before we can even start to attempt to surpass them (if at all possible).

Anyway, enough tangential thinking for me; it is back to the contemplation on the nature of freewill. Hooray (and yes, that was sarcasm).

Posted in Maturation, Random | 5 Comments »

Merry Christmas

Posted by Shane on December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas to everyone out there. I hope everyone finds something or someone to be merry about on this day.

However you plan to spend the day, remember: Do everything in moderation — including moderation.

Posted in Random | 3 Comments »

Public Service Announcement: Videotaped Crime

Posted by Shane on April 24, 2008

This is another PSA brought to you by Shane. See the last one here

If you are gong to commit a crime, please take a second and reconsider the banality of your actions. If you are still going to continue and commit this crime, then by all means, do not videotape the crime. Do not videotape it yourself, do not tell your friend to videotape you committing the crime, and if you see a stranger carrying a video camera as you are about to commit this crime, ask them politely not to videotape you..

Apparently (and I was shocked when I learned this), this videotape can be used in a trial as something called [air quote] evidence [/air quote] and this [air quote] evidence [/air quote] is quite powerful in convincing the jury to prosecute you, the defendant, to the fullest extent of the law. This so called [air quote] evidence [/air quote] is said to remove beyond all reasonable doubt the fact that you indeed committed the crime. I am also led to believe that the jury awards extra incarceration points for stupidity.

If you have been a victim of being videotaped while committing a crime, call your local public defender and ask for the [air quote] evidence [/air quote] tampering division. Your counsel might just get this [air quote] evidence [/air quote] thrown out in the court room because it violates some constitutional right you probably did not deserve to have in the first place.

 That is all.

Posted in Blogroll, PSA, Random | Tagged: , , | 4 Comments »

Perjury

Posted by Shane on February 26, 2008

Disclaimer: This is a rant post 

Here’s a notice to everyone out there. If you are ever summoned before a congressional judicial committee, or required to disclose information pursuant to judicial or regulatory action or law, please keep quiet and plead the fifth if you have anything you wish to conceal from public knowledge. I know I do not have a law degree (yet; maybe) but take my free unadulterated legal advice: Unless you have a President that is willing to commute your sentence, do not commit PERJURY. Do not even breathe the word ‘per’ and ‘jury’ in the same sentence while under such legal process. Do not try to twist the truth, or plead ignorance when such is not the case. Just plead the fifth. Federal prison is not as cool as it sound.

That is all. You’d be surprised how many people can actually benefit from this free legal advice.

Posted in PSA, Random, Rant | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

APR v. APY

Posted by Shane on February 21, 2008

The Federal Reserve has been dropping the federal fund rate in order to stimulate the economy and avoid a recession. While this is a short-term solution that may or may not stave of a US recession, it does have some externalities that immediately, whether positively or negatively, affect the consumer population.

One of these externalities occurs when commercial banks follow the listed fed rate and adjust their savings and/or lending interest rate based on the news of the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the Feds have recently cuts the fed rate in the last few months, the commercial banks have followed suit. Many rate-chaser (people searching for the best rate for their money) start jumping from bank to bank, chasing the bank that will produce the greatest return for their money. If you are one of these rate-chasers, listen up: You need to know the difference between APR & APY, and what each number means for your money.

APR = Annual Percentage Rate is the quoted rate that a given principal will face over the course of the year. APR is used to calculate how much interest is generated on the original principal over the course of the year, but it does not factor in the effects if compounding (earlier interest accumulated will also generate additional interest). This is where APY comes in. If you find yourself comparing APR between two banks, you need to find out how often the interest is compounded in order to calculate the yield.

APY = Annual Percent Yield is the actual yield that a principal will grow if left untouched for the entire year. APY was created to factor in compounding so that the APY will be the yield (total interest) that a given principal will earn over the course of the year. If you find yourself comparing APY between two banks, you need to only consider the quoted yield. It doesn’t matter how many times the interest rate is calculated in a given year. The APY has already factored the intra-year compounding.

APR is calculated as Periodic Rate * Number of Periods in a Year,

APY is calculates as (1 + Periodic Rate) # of Periods – 1

The periodic rate is the actual rate charged on the loan or investment over a specified period of time. Since most rates are quoted annual, working backward the periodic rate is the quoted APR divided by the number of times compounded in a given year.

Example:

A bank that offer APR of 5% on its deposit, compounded monthly can quote any of the following numbers

Periodic Rate = APR/Periods = 0.05/12 = .0041666 = 0.417%

APR = 5%

APY = (1 + Periodic Rate) # of Periods – 1 = (1 + 0.417) 12 – 1 = 0.051204 = 5.12%

(The more times a rate is compounded, the greater the spread between the APR and APY)

So there is the information you need in a nutshell. The information is pretty basic and if you find yourself comparing rates and/or yields, make sure you do it right.

Posted in Finance, Random | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Baseball Dirty Little Secret

Posted by Shane on December 13, 2007

I try to keep sport discussion out of this blog, but the report by George Mitchell on the state of steroids in baseball is worth noting. Here is a link to an ESPN article. Apparently, just about all our favorite players have been exposed to either steroids, growth hormones, or performance enhancing drug.

Mitchell report: Baseball slow to react to players’ steroid use

ESPN.com news services

Updated: December 13, 2007, 3:32 PM ET

NEW YORK — Roger Clemens, Miguel Tejada and Andy Pettitte were among 75 players named in the long-awaited Mitchell report on Thursday, an All-Star roster linked to steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs that put a question mark — if not an asterisk — next to some of baseball’s biggest moments.

Barry Bonds, already under indictment on charges of lying to a federal grand jury about steroids, and Gary Sheffield also showed up in Major League Baseball’s most infamous lineup since the Black Sox scandal.

The report by former Senator Majority Leader George Mitchell, who was hired by commissioner Bud Selig to examine the Steroids Era, blamed both players and management for the problem. Among the detailed conclusions of Mitchell’s 20-month investigation:

  • “For more than a decade there has been widespread anabolic steroid use” in baseball, he said.
  • “Everyone involved in baseball over the past two decades — commissioners, club officials, the players’ association and players – shares to some extent the responsibility for the steroids era,” Mitchell said. “There was a collective failure to recognize the problem as it emerged and to deal with it early on.”
  • Mitchell and his staff interviewed former New York Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski on four occasions. Radomski identified a number of former and current players he said he sold steroid and human growth hormone to. Checks and money orders, mailing receipts or shipments, and statements of other witnesses were used to back up Radomski’s allegations. Much of this was found in Radomski’s seized telephone records.
  • Brian McNamee, a former New York Yankees trainer who worked with pitchers Clemens and Pettitte, was interviewed three times by Mitchell, with a personal lawyer and federal law enforcement officials in the room.
  • Clemens, whose Hall of Fame-esque credentials include 350 victories, seven Cy Young Awards and the 1986 AL MVP award, was singled out in eight pages, with much of the information on him provided by McNamee.

Page 169 of the report reads, “According to McNamee, from the time that McNamee injected Clemens with Winstrol through the end of the 1998 season, Clemens’ performance showed remarkable improvement. “During this period of improved performance, Clemens told McNamee that the steroids ‘had a pretty good effect’ on him.”

McNamee also told investigators that “during the middle of the 2000 season, Clemens made it clear that he was ready to use steroids again. During the latter part of the regular season, McNamee injected Clemens in the buttocks four to six times with testosterone from a bottle labeled either Sustanon 250 or Deca-Durabolin.”

  • The report says Pettitte, from April 21 to June 14, 2002 when he was on the disabled list with elbow tendonitis, he “wanted to speed his recovery and help his team.” The report says “McNamee traveled to Tampa at Pettitte’s request and spent about 10 days assisting Pettitte with his rehabilitation. McNamee recalled that he injected Pettitte with human growth hormone that McNamee obtained from Radomski on two to four occasions. Pettitte paid McNamee for the trip and his expenses; there was no separate payment for the human growth hormone.”

It continued: “According to McNamee, around the time in 2003 that the BALCO searches became public, Pettitte asked what he should say if a reporter asked Pettitte whether he ever used performance enhancing substances. McNamee told him he was free to say what he wanted, but that he should not go out of his way to bring it up. McNamee also asked Pettitte not to mention his name. McNamee never discussed these substances with Pettitte again.

“After the 2001 season, Pettitte, like Clemens, continued to use McNamee’s services and to serve as a source of income after McNamee was dismissed by the Yankees. In a 2006 article, Pettitte ‘acknowledged an ongoing relationship’ with McNamee. Pettitte was quoted as having said that he still talked to McNamee about once a week. ‘ “

“After we read the report, we will have something to say,” said Randy Hendricks, the agent for Clemens and Pettitte.

  • Several former MLB players and strength and conditioning coaches were also interviewed.
  • Each player named was invited to meet with Mitchell if their name came up in his investigation. Mitchell said almost all current players refused to meet with him.
  • Response to the problem from both baseball and its players was slow to develop and was initially ineffective.
  • There is evidence the problem wasn’t isolated to one club. Many players were involved. Each club has had a player involved.
  • Mitchell’s investigation found that some players were given a heads-up to drug tests.
  • In his report, Mitchell wrote he was against commissioner Bud Selig disciplining players — those named in the report or not — for past violations of baseball’s rules against using performance-enhancing substances “except in those cases where he determines that the conduct is so serious that discipline is necessary to maintain the integrity of the game. I make this recommendation fully aware that there are valid arguments both for and against it.”

George Mitchell bio

  • Age: 74
  • Former US Senator (D-Maine), May 1980-Jan. 1995
  • Chairman, Walt Disney Company, March 2004-Dec. 2006
  • Currently Chairman of the Global Board, DLA Piper (law firm)
  • Chaired negotiations for Belfast Peace Agreement in Northern Ireland (1998)
  • Director, Boston Red Sox

• Head of investigation into past steroid use by MLB players

  • Mitchell’s conclusions:

There has been a great deal of speculation about this report. Much of it has focused on players’ names, how many and which ones. After considering that issue very carefully I concluded that it is appropriate and necessary to include them in this report. Otherwise I would not have done what I was asked to do: to try to find out what happened and to report what I learned accurately, fairly, and thoroughly. While the interest in names is understandable, I hope the media and the public will keep that part of the report in context and will look beyond the individuals to the central conclusions and recommendations of this report. In closing, I want to emphasize them:

• 1. The use of steroids in Major League Baseball was widespread. The response by baseball was slow to develop and was initially ineffective. For many years, citing concerns for the privacy rights of the players, the Players Association opposed mandatory random drug testing of its members for steroids and other substances. But in 2002, the effort gained momentum after the clubs and the Players Association agreed to and adopted a mandatory random drug testing program. The current program has been effective in that detectable steroid use appears to have declined. However, that does not mean that players have stopped using performance enhancing substances. Many players have shifted to human growth hormone, which is not detectable in any currently available urine test.

• 2. The minority of players who used such substances were wrong. They violated federal law and baseball policy, and they distorted the fairness of competition by trying to gain an unfair advantage over the majority of players who followed the law and the rules. They  the players who follow the law and the rules  are faced with the painful choice of either being placed at a competitive disadvantage or becoming illegal users themselves. No one should have to make that choice.

• 3. Obviously, the players who illegally used performance enhancing substances are responsible for their actions. But they did not act in a vacuum. Everyone involved in baseball over the past two decades  Commissioners, club officials, the Players Association, and players  shares to some extent in the responsibility for the steroids era. There was a collective failure to recognize the problem as it emerged and to deal with it early on. As a result, an environment developed in which illegal use became widespread.

• 4. Knowledge and understanding of the past are essential if the problem is to be dealt with effectively in the future. But being chained to the past is not helpful. Baseball does not need and cannot afford to engage in a never-ending search for the name of every player who ever used performance enhancing substances. The Commissioner was right to ask for this investigation and report. It would have been impossible to get closure on this issue without it, or something like it.

• 5. But it is now time to look to the future, to get on with the important and difficult task that lies ahead. Everyone involved in Major League Baseball should join in a wellplanned, well-executed, and sustained effort to bring the era of steroids and human growth hormone to an end and to prevent its recurrence in some other form in the future. That is the only way this cloud will be removed from the game. The adoption of the recommendations set forth in this report will be a first step in that direction.

Also:

  • On page 121 of the report, under a heading “players requested to be interviewed,” Jason Giambi is the only player in the Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative probe who participated in Mitchell’s investigation. This portion of the report read:

“Concerning BALCO and Major League Baseball I requested interviews of all the major league players who had been publicly implicated in the BALCO case: Marvin Benard; Barry Bonds; Bobby Estalella; Jason Giambi; Jeremy Giambi; Armando Rios; Benito Santiago; Gary Sheffield; and Randy Velarde. Jason Giambi agreed to be interviewed, and Randy Velarde provided information through his attorney. All the other players implicated in the BALCO case refused my requests to be interviewed or did not respond to them. Gary Sheffield initially declined my request for an interview. Sheffield later said that he would agree to an interview, subject to the availability of his lawyer who was undergoing medical treatments.”

Clemens, Miguel Tejada and Pettitte were named in the report, an All-Star roster linked to steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs that put a question mark — if not an asterisk — next to some of baseball’s biggest moments.

Eric Gagne, Troy Glaus, Gary Matthews Jr., Brian Roberts, Paul Lo Duca, Rick Ankiel and Jay Gibbons were among other current players named in the report. Some were linked to Human Growth Hormone, others to steroids. Also mentioned in the report is Tejada, who was dealt from Baltimore to Houston Wednesday.

“We identify some of the players who were caught up in this drive to gain a competitive advantage,” the report said. “Other investigations will no doubt turn up more names and fill in more details, but that is unlikely to significantly alter the description of baseball’s ’steroids era’ as set forth in this report.”

Mitchell released his report at a news conference in New York City. Selig will hold his own news conference at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Barry Bonds, already under indictment on charges of lying to a federal grand jury about steroids, also showed up in baseball’s most infamous lineup since the Black Sox scandal.

It was uncertain whether the report would result in any penalties or suspensions.

Several stars named in the report could pay the price in Cooperstown, much the way Mark McGwire was kept out of the Hall of Fame this year merely because of steroids suspicion.

“Former commissioner Fay Vincent told me that the problem of performance-enhancing substances may be the most serious challenge that baseball has faced since the 1919 Black Sox scandal,” Mitchell said in the 409-page report.

“The illegal use of anabolic steroids and similar substances, in Vincent’s view, is ‘cheating of the worst sort.’ He believes that it is imperative for Major League Baseball to ‘capture the moral high ground’ on the issue and, by words and deeds, make it clear that baseball will not tolerate the use of steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs.”

Information from The Associated Press is included in this report.

Among those the media already claiming are named are key star both current and retired such as Brady Anderson, Manny Alexander, Rick Ankiel, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Aaron Boone, Rafaeil Bettancourt, Bret Boone, Milton Bradley, David Bell, Dante Bichette, Albert Belle, Paul Byrd, Wil Cordero, Ken Caminiti, Mike Cameron, Ramon Castro, Jose and Ozzie Canseco, Roger Clemens, Paxton Crawford, Wilson Delgado, Lenn y Dykstra, Johnny Damon, Carl Everett, Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan Franklin, Troy Glaus, Rich Garces, Jason Grimsley, Juan Gonzalez, Eric Gagne, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Giambi, Jeremy Giambi, Jose Guillen, Jay Gibbons, Juan Gonzalez, Clay Hensley, Jerry Hairston, Felix Heredia, Jr., Darren Holmes, Wally Joyner, Darryl Kile, Matt Lawton, Raul Mondesi, Mark McGwire, Guillermo Mota, Robert Machado, Damian Moss, Abraham Abraham Nunez, Trot Nixon, Jose Offerman, Andy Pettitte, Mark Prior, Neifi Perez, Rafael Palmiero, Albert Pujols, Brian Roberts, Juan Rincon, John Rocker, Pudge Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Scott Schoenweiis, David Segui, Alex Sanchez, Gary Sheffield, Miguel Tejada, Julian Tavarez, Fernando Tatis, Maurice Vaughn, Jason Varitek, Ismael Valdez, Matt Williams and Kerry Wood. – Source of names unknown

This report confirms what I, and most fans, already know to a reality. Steroids and performance enhancing drugs are prolific in baseball. Now that this is out of the woodworks, let’s just sit back and enjoy a new era of steroid-improved sports.

I’ve accepted it. So will America.

See the complete report here.

Posted in Random, e.t.c | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Cuyler’s First “Real” Post

Posted by Shane on October 25, 2007

I mentioned a little while back in a post about a colleague of mine who created an interesting, if unimportant, blog.

Well, after a long haitus, he is gracious to bestow his words of wisdom.

Read the post here

 There’s currently nothing new on my end to report.

Posted in Random | 2 Comments »

What are you doing to celebrate Black Monday?

Posted by Shane on October 19, 2007

Today in 1987 (October 19th), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 22.6% of it’s value in one day and gained the name Black Monday. It was, and still is, the greatest decline in a single day. The reason behind the decline is still a mystery, and is now defined by the Black Swan theory (and the basis of a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb).

So what are you doing to celebrate Black Monday? Comment and let me know.

As for me, I’m going back home to my girlfriend for a nice relaxed weekend. It has been a long stressful week for me. With the weekend, I can hopefully be more productive and return to posting.

Till then.

 Addition (10/23 11:31am EST)

The Dow dropped 367 point or 2.6% of its value on Friday October 19th, 2007, the 20th anniversary of Black Monday. Media sources has already started dubbing last Friday as “Gray Friday“. Conspiracy theory or just random coincidence. You be the judge.

Posted in Finance, Random, e.t.c | 6 Comments »

Nobel Peace Prize Still a Joke.

Posted by Shane on October 12, 2007

Al Gore won shared the Nobel Peace Prize today along with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Al Gore and the IPCC won for “their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.” The rules of the committee states that the “peace prize is given each year to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for the fraternity among nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

Even if I attempt to ignore the past ‘exceptional’ winners like Yasar Arafat and Mikhail Gorbachev that discredit the mission of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, I cannot continue to believe that the committee even bothers with its own standards after the Nobel Peace Prize has just been awarded to Al Gore. Is this not the same Al Gore, who after condemning the world about global warming goes back to his mansion and consumes more energy that the average America. Yet he claims his exemptions because he lives a “carbon neutral lifestyle” where he pays a company to contribute back to the earth what he destroys from it. Here are a few statements I managed to pull about Al Gore.

Al Gore’s 20-room, eight-bathroom mansion located in the posh Belle Meade area of Nashville, consumes more electricity every month than the average American household uses in an entire year, according to the Nashville Electric Service (NES). In his documentary, the former Vice President calls on Americans to conserve energy by reducing electricity consumption at home. The average household in America consumes 10,656 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, according to the Department of Energy.

Since the release of An Inconvenient Truth, Gore’s energy consumption has increased from an average of 16,200 kWh per month in 2005, to 18,400 kWh per month in 2006. Gore’s extravagant energy use does not stop at his electric bill. Natural gas bills for Gore’s mansion and guest house averaged $1,080 per month last year.

Gore also controls the family’s large stock holdings in Occidental (Oxy) Petroleum – hardly the most eco-friendly holding.

Gore also owns a private jet. To fly a private jet from Los Angeles to Washington would burn about as much petroleum as driving a Hummer for a year. During the period Jan 99 to Dec 00, Al made 16 flights on private jets.

I’m sorry Al Gore, this makes you a hypocrite. Don’t worry; I’ll wait until you give back the Nobel Peace Prize. Maybe then, I’ll regain confidence in the true meaning behind Alfred Nobel’s inspiration. Then again, Rush Limbaugh was also nominated for the Peace Prize this year. How’s that for instant de-credibility? I can’t wait till Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is awarded the prize in 2008 for his eloquent speech on Columbia’s campus.

Posted in Random, e.t.c | 8 Comments »

The Faster Maturation?

Posted by Shane on September 14, 2007

One of my esteemed colleague decided to add a little humor to his already mundane existence and create a spoof of this blog. It is actually quite an interesting read, and if you have no value for the next five minutes, then I recommend you head over and read his first post. He promises a spoof to each post I add to this blog. Let’s hope he holds true to this promise.

Click here for his blog

Caveat Lector.

Posted in Random | 3 Comments »